ISM and labor market figures next week – TD Securities



The first week of next year will have a busy schedule when it comes to economic data. In the United States and Canada, employment and ISM figures are expected. The Federal Reserve will also publish the minutes of its last meeting. TD Securities analysts expect a net job creation of 30K in Canada in December and an NFP of 500K.

Key quotes:

“The COVID surge at the end of December probably came too late to prevent a recovery in the US payroll after the November gain (210,000) appeared to be held back by an overly aggressive seasonal factor. In Canada, we expect labor market gains to moderate with 30,000 jobs created in December, well below the trend of 6 million (126,000), which should leave the unemployment rate stable at 6.0% .

“Following the FOMC’s decision to double the pace of QE reduction and the projection of a much more hawkish dot plot, attention will now turn to the elements that led to the changing views among decision-makers (including on “maximum employment”) after November. Encounter. President Biden’s nominations for three Fed governor seats may also attract attention. “

“Data already released for December suggests a slowdown in ISMs, but still at high levels. We expect the services index to fall more sharply after November’s dramatic jump to 69.1 – an all-time high – and given the likely initial impact of Omicron. The mfg index likely fell below 60 for the first time in four months. Anything over 60 is exceptionally strong.


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